DFS Lineups, DFS Value Plays, Fantasy Sleepers

Pat’s Picks; NBA DFS (Main – 02/13/2019)

Right before the All-Star Break, we have a whopping 11 games on today’s Main slate.

Here are the list of games and their start times. Lock begins at 7:00 P.M.:

BKN Nets @ CLE Cavaliers (7:00 P.M.)
MIL Bucks @ IND Pacers (7:00 P.M.)
DET Pistons @ BOS Celtics (7:30 P.M.)
WAS Wizards @ TOR Raptors (7:30 P.M.)
PHI 76ers @ NY Knicks (7:30 P.M.)
MEM Grizzlies @ CHI Bulls (8:00 P.M.)
HOU Rockets @ MIN Timberwolves (8:00 P.M.)
MIA Heat @ DAL Mavericks (8:30 P.M.)
SAC Kings @ DEN Nuggets (9:00 P.M.)
PHO Suns @ LAC Clippers (10:30 P.M.)
GS Warriors @ POR Trail Blazers (10:30 P.M.)

Because it’s right before the break, some teams may opt to sit star players at the last minute to give them an extended rest before the final stretch of the regular season. With this in mind, my top choices of the slate will take advantage of this as well as some favorable matchups. They are:

Collin Sexton CLE

(Image courtesy of Fear The Sword; picture taken by Maddie Meyer of Getty Images)

PG Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers ($4,900 on DK; $5,500 on FD)

Sexton provides consistent value despite his price tag remaining in the low-to-mid five-thousands on both platforms. The rookie has averaged 19.25 field goal attempts per game over his last 4 contests and has scored over 25 DK points in each game during that span as well (scoring 41 in the 103-96 loss to Boston last Tuesday).

Up against a Brooklyn defense that allows close to 112 points per game, Sexton should have no trouble being inserted as a value play for DFS players tonight. I expect between 20-25 points as well as 3-5 rebounds, maybe 2 or 3 assists and a steal tonight. Without any turnovers, he’d tally 38.25 DK points with that line. Not bad for someone who costs $4,900.

SF/PF Gordon Hayward, Boston Celtics ($4,800 on DK; $5,300 on FD)

With the C’s down star PG Kyrie Irving (knee), Hayward sank 8 of his 11 field goal attempts (including 6 of 7 from 3-point range), as well his 4 free throws for 26 points in the 112-109 win over the high-powered 76ers last night. He added 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals in his 28 minutes for 39.5 DK points.

On the second half of a back-to-back prior to the All-Star break, Hayward and the Celtics host the Detroit Pistons.. this time without both Irving and, likely, backup PG Terry Rozier (illness; listed as doubtful as of this post). Hayward will see plenty of opportunities to score if Rozier is out as well, although I think Hayward would meet value regardless of whether Rozier plays or not.

If Rozier is out, SGs Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown as well as F Jayson Tatum would see boosts to their usage tonight.

The Pistons allow just under 110 points per game, but the combination of Detroit bigs in Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond have me holding off from either Marcus Morris or Al Horford tonight.

Somewhere around ~20 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and a steal would be a good night for Hayward (34.5 DK points without any turnovers) at his price tag, but he may be forced to carry more of the offensive workload with the team down Irving/Rozier. Hayward is one of many Celtics’ options tonight, but perhaps the safest ‘value play’.

C Karl Anthony-Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves ($10,300 on DK; $10,900 on FD)

The big man has averaged 28 points per game over his last 5. Houston’s Clint Capela (thumb) has rejoined the team but will not be available for tonight’s game against Minnesota. Kenneth Faried has played well in Capela’s stead, but KAT is virtually matchup-proof.

Despite the hefty price tag, I have complete confidence in KAT scoring over 55 DK points tonight against the Rockets. I’m predicting a monster double-double of at least 25 points, 15 rebounds.. but add in the 3-5 assists he may tally as well as his blocks/steals (possibly around 3-4 total), and that will pad his final stat line.

This final game before the All-Star break is a perfect chance for KAT to go all-in against the Rockets, a team considered to be one of the best in the West.

SG Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards ($8,700 on DK; $9,700 on FD)

Beal is likely going to go under the radar tonight on both platforms. With James Harden commanding a large percentage of ownership already, there are also a few value options at SG in Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown tonight (assuming Terry Rozier is out, like I mentioned above; see Gordon Hayward’s little tidbit). Allen Crabbe could also take ownership away from Beal because of Treveon Graham (personal) and Rodion Kurucs (elbow) being ruled out (Crabbe played 31 minutes the other day with those two playing a combined 36 minutes).

Don’t expect Beal to put up the monster stat line he put up last time the Wizards and Raptors played (43 points, 15 assists, 10 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 steals in 54 minutes), but I think Beal puts on a show tonight against the Raptors. Beal has scored 30+ in his last 2 games, with multiple steals in each of his last 4.

Beal could help set a lineup apart tonight. With options like Harden, Devin Booker, DeAngelo Russell and a few key value plays out there, it’s likely Beal is the X-factor in a winning lineup.

SG/SF Landry Shamet, Los Angeles Clippers ($4,000 on DK; $4,600 on FD)

Given Shamet’s production with the Clippers since his trade from the Philadephia 76ers, I’m surprised he’s not priced in the $4,500-$5,000 range on DK. Shamet may not contribute immensely in other categories, but scoring 15+ points a game gives him a safe floor at his price range for a non-big.

Shamet could allow a DFS player to fit in some other quality options; as another option in the long list of players today, he could be another key factor to set a lineup apart.

I’m thinking 15-20 points, 2-3 rebounds and assists and perhaps a steal or two would be as good of a stat line as you could ask from Shamet tonight. If he gets 30+, that’s just the gravy on top. Against the Suns, expect the latter.

Best of luck everybody in your DFS lineups tonight!

DFS Lineups, DFS Value Plays, Fantasy Sleepers

Super Bowl LIII Single-Game Contests (FanDuel)

We’re talking FanDuel here, so five players instead of six on DraftKings, and you have a $60,000 salary cap.

Luckily the MVP isn’t worth 1.5x the money on FanDuel, otherwise you’d be paying far too much for a quality player in this slot.

Sony Michel

(Image courtesy of Pro Football Reference)

I have to go with Sony Michel for my MVP for the same reasons I talked about in my previous article; Michel is clearly the hot hand in the Patriots’ offense right now. Five rushing TDs in two playoff games? He’s going to see at least 20 carries in the Super Bowl, so no doubt Michel should get the nod. Despite being $14,500, he’s worth it.

The prices on FanDuel are jacked up a bit considering the extra $10,000 in salary cap.. like I said on my previous article, Tom Brady is worth $10,600 on DK but a whopping $15,500 on FD. I honestly think it’s a good idea to fade from Brady on FD – save your money, as I think Super Bowl LIII is going to be a running-heavy game. With Michel at MVP, stack him with Rex Burkhead for $10,000. Burkhead and Michel both rushed for paydirt twice against the Chiefs. Burkhead should see plenty of usage in order to give Michel and James White a breather.

Julian Edelman is Brady’s top option in the passing game and should be a core play at $14,000. He’s a quality option who should be moved around the field to make the most of his route-running prowess.

I’d round out the remaining $20,500 with Brandin Cooks ($11,500) and Greg Zuerlein ($10,000). Cooks will see plenty of targets against his former team. I like Zuerlein because the Patriots play great defense in the red zone. I see Zuerlein getting at least 2 opportunities to kick a field goal.. potentially more if some big plays occur.

Best of luck on Super Bowl Sunday!

 

DFS Lineups, DFS Value Plays

Triple F Podcast Week 11

Check out our newest edition of the Triple F Podcast (link below)!

Triple F Podcast Week 11

Patrick Caldwell talks about some of his preferred options for Week 11 on FanDuel (Sunday, 1 P.M. Main).

Check out his Facebook page at Patrick Caldwell, NFL Analyst!

Fantasy Sleepers, Waiver Wire

Week 10 Waiver Wire Pickups

The newest episode of the Triple F Podcast covers waiver wire options for Week 10, courtesy of yours truly (you can thank me later).

Week 10 Waiver Wire Pickups

Below are the mentioned players, for your convenience:

McCown

(I do not own this image, nor do I intend to use this photo maliciously. Courtesy of 247Sports.com)

QB Josh McCown, NYJ vs Buf

RB Duke Johnson Jr., Cle vs. Atl

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB vs. Mia

WR Dez Bryant, NO @ Cin

TE Benjamin Watson, NO @ Cin

49ers D/ST vs. NYG

Fantasy Sleepers

Week 8 Sleepers

QB Mitch Trubisky – Chicago Bears

Averaging 34.1 fantasy points per game (NFL.com) every week since Week 4, Mitch Trubisky is a solid option at the QB position going forward. If you drafted someone like Russell Wilson and are looking for another option at QB, look no further than Trubisky, who is already on pace to set all sorts of passing records for the Bears.

RB Jalen Richard – Oakland Raiders

With “Beast-Mode” placed on IR and out for the foreseeable future, Richard is set to split the rushing duties with Doug Martin. However, Richard’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield gives him a slight advantage from a fantasy standpoint. The Raiders square off with the Colts on Sunday, who are notorious for allowing running backs to catch the football. Richard has heightened fantasy value while Lynch is recovering, especially in PPR formats.

RB Kenjon Barner – New England Patriots

After an injury to Sony Michel last week against the Bears, the Pats are left with James White, and Kenjon Barner. New England has already lost both Rex Burkhead and Jeremy Hill to season-ending injuries, and with the absence of Michel, Barner should see an increased role in the Patriots offense. James White will still assume the role of lead back, but with all the moving around White does within the Patriots offense (in addition to his receiving production), it would make sense for Barner to control a good share of the rushing attempts. He’ll possibly even take the lead as a redzone back. I like Barner this week in a big win for the Pats over a struggling Buffalo Bills defense.

WR Tre’Quan Smith – New Orleans Saints

The Vikings secondary is banged up, and Ted Ginn is out with an injury, leaving the door open for Tre’Quan Smith to step up for New Orleans. The number one priority for the Vikings will be to stop Michael Thomas in the passing game, which in turn, should leave the door wide open for Smith to put up big numbers. I expect production this week from Smith in an offensive shootout in Minnesota.

WR Jordy Nelson – Oakland Raiders

With Amari Cooper out the door, Nelson all of a sudden finds himself as the number one receiver on the Raiders roster. Without Cooper, and after the offseason departures of Michael Crabtree and Cordarrelle Patterson, Derek Carr has limited options to throw the football to, and Nelson ranks at the top of list. Expect Jordy to have a break out week against a weak Indianapolis secondary.

TE Ben Watson – New Orleans Saints

This might be a little bit of point chasing. Watson is coming off his best game of the season where he had 6 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown. But similar to Tre’Quan Smith, Watson is likely to have an increase in targets in the absence of Ted Ginn. This is a high-powered offense with Drew Brees at the helm, who will never be afraid to throw the football regardless of who he is throwing to. Watson is a definite sleeper this week, and is primed for a solid Week 8 performance.

D/ST Arizona Cardinals vs. 49ers

Taking the bait on this one. Just a few weeks ago, the Cards forced five turnovers against this same 49ers team. And just one week ago, the Rams dominated the Niners with seven sacks and four takeaways. This play is just as much about how bad the Niners have been offensively as it is about Arizona’s success defensively. Give me the Cardinals defense on their home field.

Start/Sit

Week 8 Start/Sits

With Week 8 upon us, teams like the Packers and Seahawks are coming off a bye and should be welcome additions to the starting lineups of fantasy owners.

Here’s the upcoming schedule for Week 8:

Teams on BYE: Cowboys, Chargers, Falcons, Titans

Thursday, 8:20 P.M.

Dolphins (4-3) vs. Texans (4-3)

Sunday, 9:30 A.M.

Eagles (3-4) vs. Jaguars (3-4) [@ Wembley Stadium in London]

Sunday, 1:00 P.M.

Ravens (4-3) @ Panthers (4-2) —— Broncos (3-4) @ Chiefs (6-1)

Browns (2-4-1) @ Steelers (3-2-1) —— Seahawks (3-3) @ Lions (3-3)

Buccaneers (3-3) @ Bengals (4-3) —— Jets (3-4) @ Bears (3-3)

Redskins (4-2) @ Giants (1-6)

Sunday, 4:05 P.M.

Colts (2-5) @ Raiders (1-5)

Sunday, 4:25 P.M.

49ers (1-6) @ Cardinals (1-6)

Packers (3-2-1) @ Rams (7-0)

Sunday, 8:20 P.M.

Saints (5-1) @ Vikings (4-2-1)

Monday, 8:15 P.M.

Patriots (5-2) @ Bills (2-5)


For me, standout games include:

Dolphins @ Texans because both teams are 4-3 and this game could have big playoff implications down the road (not to mention it might be the first interesting Thursday night game in a while).

Ravens @ Panthers because it seems like one of those true “any given Sunday” matchups and both teams have 4 wins.

Packers @ Rams because of the shootout potential as well as two great offenses going head-to-head.

Saints @ Vikings because it’s a rematch of the NFC Championship Game last year, with both teams doing well mid-way through 2018.

Alrighty, time for those start/sits!

Dalton

(I do not own this image nor do I intend to take credit for this image in any way.)

START

QB Andy Dalton, Bengals vs. Buccaneers

Okay so Dalton threw up a stinker last week against an otherwise generous pass defense. He completed 15/29 passes for 148 yards with a TD and an INT (which ended up being a 33-yard pick-six by Chiefs’ safety Ron Parker). The Bengals had trouble converting on third down, being successful just 4 of 11 attempts. Something to consider; the Buccaneers allow a whopping 53.33% of 3rd-down conversion attempts during away games.

With how bad the Buccaneers’ pass defense has been, this is a prime opportunity for Dalton to rebound.

Prediction: 27/38, 336 yards, 3 TD, INT; 2 rushes, 11 yards

QB C.J. Beathard, 49ers @ Cardinals

Beathard could be a sleeper start at QB this week considering the matchup – the last time San Francisco played Arizona, Beathard completed 34/54 passes for 349 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs while also rushing in a TD.

Things will go Beathard’s way if the running back committee of Matt Breida (ankle), Raheem Mostert and Alfred Morris can establish even a decent rushing attack. Let’s not forget Cardinals’ CB Patrick Peterson requested to be traded before the October 30th trade deadline – if he is indeed traded, the Arizona pass defense weakens tremendously.

Prediction: 33/46, 323 yards, 3 TD, INT; 4 rushes, 17 yards

RB Jalen Richard, Raiders vs. Colts

Marshawn Lynch (groin) is on IR. This leaves Doug Martin and Richard to handle the backfield duties for a struggling Oakland offense. So why Richard over Martin?

Richard has showcased above-average pass-catching ability this season and is more familiar with the offense. He has at least 5 targets in his last 4 games, and 13 receptions over his last 2.

Against the Colts’ run-of-the-mill defense, Richard will likely get his fair share of opportunities. He’s the safer bet between him and Martin for fantasy purposes, especially for PPR leagues.

Prediction: 5 rushes, 19 yards; 6 receptions, 71 yards, TD

RB Raheem Mostert, 49ers @ Cardinals

This start depends on the status of teammate Matt Breida (ankle). I think Mostert is worth a flex-play in deeper leagues regardless of Breida’s status, but if the latter is inactive, Mostert jumps to RB2 territory.

Mostert has rushed for 146 yards on 19 carries in his last two games, adding 4 receptions for 19 yards. With the Cardinals being weak against the run this season (allowing a league-worst 12 TDs on the ground), Mostert has upside this week.

Prediction: 11 rushes, 71 yards, TD; 2 receptions, 9 yards

DEEP SLEEPER – RB Trenton Cannon, Jets @ Bears

This one’s a bit of a long shot, but with Bilal Powell (neck) going on IR, Cannon now sees himself as Isaiah Crowell’s primary backup. In an effort to keep Crowell from getting fatigued, I think Cannon sees more usage down the stretch. This particular matchup might not be that friendly, but the speedy 6th-rounder could make a huge impact if given more opportunity.

Prediction: 7 rushes, 38 yards; 4 receptions, 44 yards, TD

WR Willie Snead, Ravens @ Panthers

Snead has had at least 7 targets in 5 out of 7 games with Baltimore this season, with his last 4 games being among them. With deep threat John Brown a nightmare for defenses and Michael Crabtree a solid possession receiver, Snead could fly under the radar against a middle-of-the-pack Panthers’ defense.

Prediction: 6 receptions, 68 yards, TD

WR Martavis Bryant, Raiders vs. Colts

Amari Cooper’s a Cowboy now, so that opens up targets for Jordy Nelson, Jared Cook and Bryant.

With Bryant being a reliable deep threat and the Colts being in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed, Bryant could be the primary beneficiary of Cooper’s absence during Week 8 play.

Prediction: 5 receptions, 104 yards, TD

TE Chris Herndon, Jets @ Bears

Tough matchup, but Herndon has been a favorite target of QB Sam Darnold’s of late. With WR Quincy Enunwa (ankle) still out and WR Robby Anderson inconsistent with the deep ball, Herndon may be the only option to trust as far as Jets’ receivers.

Hard to expect another TD after 2 straight games with a score considering his overall small target share (9 targets in the last 2 weeks), but Herndon could be a lone bright spot for a Jets team that could very well be smothered by the Bears’ defense.

Prediction: 3 receptions, 47 yards, TD

TE C.J. Uzomah, Bengals vs. Buccaneers

Uzomah should be a good stack with QB Andy Dalton on Sunday. After catching the two targets sent his way for 13 yards and the lone TD against the Chiefs, Uzomah is also primed for a rebound performance. What helps him more is that his teammate Tyler Kroft (foot) remains in a boot and is likely going to be out for a while.

Prediction: 5 receptions, 51 yards, TD

Redskins D/ST @ Giants

Even against a generous pass defense in the Falcons on Monday night, Eli Manning and the Giants seemed to struggle immensely. Granted, head coach Pat Shurmur made a questionable decision to go for 2 after a Saquon Barkley TD made the score 20-12 in favor of the Falcons.. but again, offensive line struggles limited the potential of a Giants team that features talent across its skill positions.

The Redskins got by the Cowboys thanks to a fumble return TD by Preston Smith and a strip-sack by Ryan Kerrigan. Expect this unit to pull off a similar performance against the struggling Giants.

Prediction: 20 points allowed, 5 sacks, 2 INT, 1 FR, TD

Steelers D/ST vs. Browns

While the last time Pittsburgh faced division rival Cleveland, the latter had Tyrod Taylor behind center, Pittsburgh accrued seven sacks and kept the Browns to a 21-all tie.

Maybe the Steelers don’t get 7 sacks, but their front seven will be sure to give #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield some fits.

Prediction: 20 points allowed, 4 sacks, 2 INT

Jared Goff

(I do not own this image nor do I intend to take credit for this image in any way.)

SIT

QB Jared Goff, Rams vs. Packers

Depending on your roster, you might not have the ability to sit Goff.. but there are better options this week. The Packers’ pass defense ranks 3rd in the league in yards allowed (behind Seattle and somehow Jacksonville despite their string of bad games).

Yes, the Rams’ offense is high-flying and this game has huge shootout potential – but like I said, there are better options, especially more so than a QB that’s thrown for a combined 403 yards, 2 TDs and an INT in the last two weeks (yes one of them was in a snowy/rainy Denver but still). Keep in mind that this year, Goff’s never attempted more than 36 passes. Even in a shootout, expect somewhere between 32-38 pass attempts.

Temper your expectations with Goff this week.

Prediction: 21/33, 261 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT; 3 rushes, 9 yards

QB Russell Wilson, Seahawks @ Lions

Right behind Green Bay at 4th in the league in passing yards allowed rests the Detroit Lions. Wilson’s thrown over 250 yards once, and that was Week 1 @ Denver. While the Seattle quarterback has thrown 3 TD passes in his past 2 games, I don’t see that trend continuing even as the team comes off a bye.

While the Lions have only picked off quarterbacks twice this season, their 221 passing yards allowed per game have me holding off on Wilson being a solid option this week.

Prediction: 19/27, 239 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 5 rushes, 27 yards

RB Javorius Allen, Ravens @ Panthers

6 targets out of the backfield in the last two weeks make Allen hard to trust coming into play against Carolina. Until I see more volume, Allen isn’t really on my radar honestly.

Prediction: 4 rushes, 10 yards; 3 receptions, 22 yards

RB Chris Carson, Seahawks @ Lions

This would have been a good play a few weeks ago when he was on his streak of 100+ yard games, but the Seattle backfield situation is too muddled to tell who will come out on top. Detroit represents a good matchup for the Seahawks on the ground, as they rank 26th in rushing yards allowed at a league-worst 5.3 YPC.. but without a clear picture of who will carry the ball more, Carson may not get you as much production as you may like.

Prediction: 16 carries, 62 yards; 1 reception, 7 yards

WR Brandin Cooks, Rams vs. Packers

Not only do I think to sit Cooks because of Goff’s underproduction these last few weeks, but Cooks has seen under 7 targets for consecutive weeks in a row despite the presence of Cooper Kupp on the field.

With the Rams’ offense consistently funneling through Todd Gurley, it’s hard to rely on Cooks even though he’s such a dynamic player.

Prediction: 4 receptions, 55 yards

WR Devin Funchess, Panthers vs. Ravens

Funchess boasts a more consistent usage with the return of TE Greg Olsen to the offense that helps take away defensive attention from him. With TDs in his last two games as well as 11 receptions, Funchess is on a solid streak – but we all know the defensive capabilities of Baltimore’s secondary.

Panthers’ QB Cam Newton (right shoulder) was limited at practice Wednesday and if his shouder injury is bad enough, it could very well limit his ability to throw the ball down field despite reports that he was able to make most of his typical throws. With the matchup concern combined with Newton’s potential limitation, I’d throw caution to the wind with Funchess.

Prediction: 4 receptions, 47 yards

TE Eric Ebron, Colts @ Raiders

Although the target share of Ebron seemed to be unaffected by the return of WR T.Y. Hilton, it could see limitations if TE Jack Doyle (hip) comes back for this game.

The Raiders represent a juicy matchup for Colts’ receivers, given that QB Andrew Luck’s known for slinging the ball downfield. However, 7 receptions over the last two games represents a slim margin for error that I believe will limit Ebron’s upside. There are better TE options this week.

Prediction: 3 receptions, 43 yards

TE Jordan Reed, Redskins @ Giants

Even with all of the injuries to Washington receivers (Paul Richardson, Jamison Crowder), Reed seems to be under-performing with QB Alex Smith throwing him the ball. With inconsistent production at an already slim position, Reed is just not the greatest option against a Giants’ secondary that, while allowing 50+ yards to TEs in 4 of their last 5 games, will likely hone in on him as the most dangerous threat in an already weak passing attack.

Prediction: 3 receptions, 32 yards

Jets D/ST @ Bears

The Jets’ defense, while they have incredibly talented personnel in the likes of S Jamal Adams and DE Leonard Williams, have been suspect of late. Allowing 34 and 37 points to the Colts and Vikings, respectively, it’s hard to trust this unit against a Mitchell Trubisky-led Chicago offense that’s finding more and more creative ways to move the chains. Keep in mind that the Jets haven’t notched a sack since their Week 5 battle with the Broncos. Trubisky has thrown for over 300 passing yards, rushed for over 45 yards and passed for 2+ TDs in his last 3 games, and I believe this will be his fourth consecutive successful venture.

Prediction: 33 points allowed, 1 sack, 1 FR

Seahawks D/ST @ Lions

While Matthew Stafford is coming off two sub-par performances with under 220 passing yards, he also hasn’t turned the ball over since the Week 3 win against New England. A lot of pundits have Stafford struggling again this week and the Seahawks being a decent streaming option this week, but their last game was against the struggling Oakland offense. Seattle was able to tally six sacks, recover two fumbles and limit the Raiders to just 3 points all game.

This contest won’t be so easy for them, and I see Stafford limiting opportunities for Seattle by leaning on Kerryon Johnson’s increased usage in the rushing attack. Maybe I’m on the wrong side of this one, but starting Seattle’s defense on the road against the Lions doesn’t seem like the best bet.

Prediction: 24 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 FR