DFS Lineups, DFS Value Plays, Fantasy Sleepers, Start/Sit

Jaguars Need To Trade For/Sign Nick Foles

Blake Bortles has never been and will never be the answer at the quarterback position in Jacksonville.

A solid defense led by a star cornerback in Jalen Ramsey needs to be complemented by a capable-enough offense. Bortles just can’t get the job done. Foles is a proven winner and would stand a much stronger chance of leading the Jaguars to a playoff berth of some kind. Assuming wide receiver Marqise Lee comes back healthy after missing all of last season, and the Jaguars possibly draft another receiver (or a tight end), this team could be one of the biggest sleepers of the 2019 NFL season.

If I were Shadid Khan, the owner of the Jaguars, I would be doing whatever I could (within reason) to acquire Nick Foles. Search for your next franchise quarterback in a future draft and pick up a proven winner now.

DFS Lineups, DFS Value Plays, Fantasy Sleepers

Pat’s Picks; NBA DFS (Main – 02/13/2019)

Right before the All-Star Break, we have a whopping 11 games on today’s Main slate.

Here are the list of games and their start times. Lock begins at 7:00 P.M.:

BKN Nets @ CLE Cavaliers (7:00 P.M.)
MIL Bucks @ IND Pacers (7:00 P.M.)
DET Pistons @ BOS Celtics (7:30 P.M.)
WAS Wizards @ TOR Raptors (7:30 P.M.)
PHI 76ers @ NY Knicks (7:30 P.M.)
MEM Grizzlies @ CHI Bulls (8:00 P.M.)
HOU Rockets @ MIN Timberwolves (8:00 P.M.)
MIA Heat @ DAL Mavericks (8:30 P.M.)
SAC Kings @ DEN Nuggets (9:00 P.M.)
PHO Suns @ LAC Clippers (10:30 P.M.)
GS Warriors @ POR Trail Blazers (10:30 P.M.)

Because it’s right before the break, some teams may opt to sit star players at the last minute to give them an extended rest before the final stretch of the regular season. With this in mind, my top choices of the slate will take advantage of this as well as some favorable matchups. They are:

Collin Sexton CLE

(Image courtesy of Fear The Sword; picture taken by Maddie Meyer of Getty Images)

PG Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers ($4,900 on DK; $5,500 on FD)

Sexton provides consistent value despite his price tag remaining in the low-to-mid five-thousands on both platforms. The rookie has averaged 19.25 field goal attempts per game over his last 4 contests and has scored over 25 DK points in each game during that span as well (scoring 41 in the 103-96 loss to Boston last Tuesday).

Up against a Brooklyn defense that allows close to 112 points per game, Sexton should have no trouble being inserted as a value play for DFS players tonight. I expect between 20-25 points as well as 3-5 rebounds, maybe 2 or 3 assists and a steal tonight. Without any turnovers, he’d tally 38.25 DK points with that line. Not bad for someone who costs $4,900.

SF/PF Gordon Hayward, Boston Celtics ($4,800 on DK; $5,300 on FD)

With the C’s down star PG Kyrie Irving (knee), Hayward sank 8 of his 11 field goal attempts (including 6 of 7 from 3-point range), as well his 4 free throws for 26 points in the 112-109 win over the high-powered 76ers last night. He added 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals in his 28 minutes for 39.5 DK points.

On the second half of a back-to-back prior to the All-Star break, Hayward and the Celtics host the Detroit Pistons.. this time without both Irving and, likely, backup PG Terry Rozier (illness; listed as doubtful as of this post). Hayward will see plenty of opportunities to score if Rozier is out as well, although I think Hayward would meet value regardless of whether Rozier plays or not.

If Rozier is out, SGs Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown as well as F Jayson Tatum would see boosts to their usage tonight.

The Pistons allow just under 110 points per game, but the combination of Detroit bigs in Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond have me holding off from either Marcus Morris or Al Horford tonight.

Somewhere around ~20 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and a steal would be a good night for Hayward (34.5 DK points without any turnovers) at his price tag, but he may be forced to carry more of the offensive workload with the team down Irving/Rozier. Hayward is one of many Celtics’ options tonight, but perhaps the safest ‘value play’.

C Karl Anthony-Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves ($10,300 on DK; $10,900 on FD)

The big man has averaged 28 points per game over his last 5. Houston’s Clint Capela (thumb) has rejoined the team but will not be available for tonight’s game against Minnesota. Kenneth Faried has played well in Capela’s stead, but KAT is virtually matchup-proof.

Despite the hefty price tag, I have complete confidence in KAT scoring over 55 DK points tonight against the Rockets. I’m predicting a monster double-double of at least 25 points, 15 rebounds.. but add in the 3-5 assists he may tally as well as his blocks/steals (possibly around 3-4 total), and that will pad his final stat line.

This final game before the All-Star break is a perfect chance for KAT to go all-in against the Rockets, a team considered to be one of the best in the West.

SG Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards ($8,700 on DK; $9,700 on FD)

Beal is likely going to go under the radar tonight on both platforms. With James Harden commanding a large percentage of ownership already, there are also a few value options at SG in Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown tonight (assuming Terry Rozier is out, like I mentioned above; see Gordon Hayward’s little tidbit). Allen Crabbe could also take ownership away from Beal because of Treveon Graham (personal) and Rodion Kurucs (elbow) being ruled out (Crabbe played 31 minutes the other day with those two playing a combined 36 minutes).

Don’t expect Beal to put up the monster stat line he put up last time the Wizards and Raptors played (43 points, 15 assists, 10 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 steals in 54 minutes), but I think Beal puts on a show tonight against the Raptors. Beal has scored 30+ in his last 2 games, with multiple steals in each of his last 4.

Beal could help set a lineup apart tonight. With options like Harden, Devin Booker, DeAngelo Russell and a few key value plays out there, it’s likely Beal is the X-factor in a winning lineup.

SG/SF Landry Shamet, Los Angeles Clippers ($4,000 on DK; $4,600 on FD)

Given Shamet’s production with the Clippers since his trade from the Philadephia 76ers, I’m surprised he’s not priced in the $4,500-$5,000 range on DK. Shamet may not contribute immensely in other categories, but scoring 15+ points a game gives him a safe floor at his price range for a non-big.

Shamet could allow a DFS player to fit in some other quality options; as another option in the long list of players today, he could be another key factor to set a lineup apart.

I’m thinking 15-20 points, 2-3 rebounds and assists and perhaps a steal or two would be as good of a stat line as you could ask from Shamet tonight. If he gets 30+, that’s just the gravy on top. Against the Suns, expect the latter.

Best of luck everybody in your DFS lineups tonight!

DFS Lineups, DFS Value Plays, Fantasy Sleepers

Pat’s Picks; NBA DFS (Main – 02/12/19)

Today I’ll start a series called ‘Pat’s Picks’, where I’ll highlight my top choices that you should put into some or all of your lineups. My picks will cover both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Here are today’s games, with the lock time set at 7:30 P.M.:

Lakers @ Hawks (7:30 P.M.)
Magic @ Pelicans (8:00 P.M.)
Spurs @ Grizzlies (8:00 P.M.) (I only like one player from this game…)
Celtics @ 76ers (8:00 P.M.)
Jazz @ Warriors (10:30 P.M.)

Without further ado…

Kenrich Williams NOP

(Image courtesy of The Advocate staff. Photo taken by Scott Threlkeld.)

SG/SF Kenrich Williams, New Orleans Pelicans ($4,900 on DK, $6,400 on FD)

Williams has been highly impressive of late, scoring double-digit points as well as upping his rebounding over the last 3 games. He consistently sees 35+ minutes and has heavily increased his production since seeing starter minutes.

He faces the Orlando Magic tonight – not a bad defense, but with Williams’ new role in the offense, he contributes across the board too much to not insert into your lineup. He put up his first career double-double in his last game (99-90 loss to Memphis, a top defense), and he’s a threat to put up double-doubles on a nightly basis with his current usage.

On DraftKings, Williams is one of my top locks. He’s cheap and should get at least 30+ DK points tonight. On FanDuel, his $6,400 price tag has me second-guessing him.. but he’s still an amazing play (he’s a SF on FD). Orlando’s Jonathan Isaac could cause a few turnovers as he’s a pretty consistent defender, but Williams to me is almost a guaranteed 30+ fantasy point play tonight.

SG/SF Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic ($5,100 on DK; $6,400 on FD)

Another player who is priced way lower than they ought to be. I’m surprised Isaac hasn’t reached the $6,000+ range on DK yet; at $5,100, Isaac is a fantastic play against a mediocre Pelicans’ defense allowing a whopping 115 points per game to opposing teams.

Isaac has been scoring 25+ DK points in his last 8 games, and has had multiple blocks in his last 6! Isaac is able to stuff the stat sheet, notching steals and blocks while adding to his floor with his rebounding totals. He’ll be a fine play tonight against the Pelicans – preferably on DK, but his defensive abilities justify his $6,400 price tag on FanDuel as well.

Expect a solid 25-30+ from Isaac.

SF/PF Kyle Kuzma, Los Angeles Lakers ($6,000 on DK; $6,700 on FD)

Over 38 DK points in his last two games, Kuzma is geared for another solid night as he takes on a weak Hawks’ frontcourt.

The presence of LeBron James as one of the game’s top facilitators has been a major factor in Kuzma’s scoring emergence of late. Don’t expect huge contributions in other areas outside of maybe rebounding, but if Kuzma can score 20+ points he’s bound to provide value. I’d be surprised if Kuzma was kept under 35 fantasy points on either DK or FD tonight.

SF/PF Tobias Harris, Philadelphia 76ers ($6,600 on DK; $7,200 on FD)

I think Harris is going to be low-owned with the trio of Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid commanding a higher percentage of ownership by players tonight. With the Celtics down Kyrie Irving tonight, Boston’s defensive attention will likely be spread too thin and allow Harris to slip through the cracks.

Of course Harris isn’t the top option on this high-powered offense, but his modest rebounding and assist totals make him very likely to hit value tonight. Boston is a good defensive team, but when they’re down Irving they’re playing from behind. I’m liking almost every 76er tonight including J.J. Redick, but I think Harris will help some people get some serious cash tonight.

C JaVale McGee, Los Angeles Lakers ($4,800 on DK; $6,300 on FD)

I like his price on DK a lot. Atlanta’s weak in the frontcourt, and I think McGee provides amazing value on both DK and FD despite his $1,500 increase on the latter.

McGee put up a 20-point double double against the 76ers, who had both Harris and Embiid on defense; the Hawks have John Collins and a combination of Dwayne Dedmon and Alex Len. I’m not too worried about McGee meeting his floor, but of course it’s dependent on him maintaining the 27.5 minutes/game average he’s seen over his last two games.

I’d be surprised if McGee gave less than 25 fantasy points on either platform.

C Joakim Noah, Memphis Grizzlies ($4,000 on DK; $3,700 on FD)

Okay, so a little caveat; C Jonas Valanciunas is available to debut for the Grizzlies tonight after his immigration paperwork cleared (Valancuinas previously playing for the Toronto Raptors before being traded). HOWEVER….. I still like Noah tonight. He should see a solid ~25 minutes even with Valanciunas in the fold tonight, as the latter is recovering from a thumb injury he sustained in December. Valanciunas is expected to play as a backup to PF/C Ivan Rabb for the time being.

Noah saw 30 minutes against the Pelicans this past Sunday, with the veteran turning back the clock and putting up a strong double-double (19 points, 14 rebounds and 3 assists). Even if Noah only sees a max of 25 minutes, he’ll easily meet his minimal price tag (which, weirdly, is cheaper on FD). Expect around 25-30 fantasy points out of Noah tonight.

NOTE: This is probably the only player I’d play from either team in the Spurs-Grizzlies matchup. This will be mostly a defensive contest. Studs like DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge and Mike Conley are going to be hard-pressed to match their usual point totals; I’d hold off on relying on players from this contest.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DFS Lineups, DFS Value Plays, Fantasy Sleepers

NBA DFS General Tips

Does it seem like no matter how good your lineup is, you’re just barely out of the money? Do you need help getting ahead?

Here are some of my general thoughts when it comes to playing NBA lineups. I’ll give specific tips regarding FanDuel and DraftKings-specific lineups:

FanDuel

  • The player with the lowest score will be dropped, but don’t let yourself get too cute with lineup choices. You should be just as careful on FanDuel with risky plays as you are on DraftKings. You don’t want to play pure boom or bust players under the assumption that they could just be your drop score because if one of the other 8 players in your lineups has an off-night or gets injured during the game/sits last minute due to sickness or something, you’re boned.
  • With the above in mind, FanDuel is definitely the place to get a little creative. Taking a chance on a guy who might not be 100% certain to play can pay off; other players in large tournament games will steer clear so that they don’t fall victim to an automatic 0.. but if the player does take the court, you now have a player that’s lower-owned than normal. If the player is a stud, it could very well be a key difference-maker.
  • Your drop-score candidate should cost as little as possible so you can use the rest of your $60,000 to build as strong a lineup as you can. Let’s say a starter is out due to rest or an injury; their backup is now going to see extra run, and if the backup is anywhere from $3,500 – $4,500, that’s an IDEAL candidate for your drop score. He can hopefully set the bar somewhere in the fantasy point range of 20-25, so the rest of your lineup should combine for around 290+ to get in the money a majority of the time.
  • Try and get players that not only score a lot, but stuff the stat sheet. A huge part of getting high scores from your plays involve choosing players that can steal and block as well as get consistent assists and/or rebounds. All of these stats are worth more than points – this doesn’t mean points aren’t valuable, but try and get players that are able to contribute in multiple areas as their floors are a LOT higher than those that simply score.. unless the scorers can consistently hit 25+ a game.

DraftKings

  • Take advantage of the ability to customize your lineup. Because of the variation of slots (starting 5, guard, forward, utility), you can do plenty of different things. Play multiple big men, multiple guards, multiple small forwards.. whatever you feel will get you the most points that specific day.
  • Regarding the point above, centers tend to have incredibly safe and high floors as their ability to rebound gives most of them a solid chance of a double-double most nights.
  • Speaking of double-doubles, stacking centers is a good idea because double-doubles/triple-doubles give players who attain them bonuses. 1.5 points for a DDbl, 3 for a TDbl. So big men that rebound a lot are prime candidates for DDbls, which means a virtual lock for 30+ fantasy points.
  • Because you only have a $50,000 salary cap instead of $60,000 on FanDuel, your value plays should be no higher than $4,100-$4,300. This lets you stack players that eat up more cap but are virtual locks.
  • When building a lineup, try to play value plays FIRST. This is so you don’t get too cash-happy right off the bat and you can get the hard part out of the way. Why play a guy who’s worth $6,700 when his ceiling is around 35? He may be consistent, but you’re spending way too much to get a sure 30-40 point range from a player. I’d rather play a cheaper player who’s on a hot streak to try and get that same score. It saves money and lets you play others who have higher ceilings.
  • Try not to play too many top players – a lot of them will be high-owned as they’re well-known and bound to be one of the top scorers of the night. This doesn’t mean that you never play them, but don’t over-saturate your exposure of that player. Building lineups that include players who will be overlooked due to bigger names or maybe a bad matchup is essential in making your lineup different than the norm, which may get you in the money.

There’s so much more I could type here, but I’m going to stop now before I fall asleep at the keyboard. Best of luck in your DFS lineups! Feel free to reach out if you have questions!

DFS Lineups, DFS Value Plays, Fantasy Sleepers

Super Bowl LIII Single-Game Contests (FanDuel)

We’re talking FanDuel here, so five players instead of six on DraftKings, and you have a $60,000 salary cap.

Luckily the MVP isn’t worth 1.5x the money on FanDuel, otherwise you’d be paying far too much for a quality player in this slot.

Sony Michel

(Image courtesy of Pro Football Reference)

I have to go with Sony Michel for my MVP for the same reasons I talked about in my previous article; Michel is clearly the hot hand in the Patriots’ offense right now. Five rushing TDs in two playoff games? He’s going to see at least 20 carries in the Super Bowl, so no doubt Michel should get the nod. Despite being $14,500, he’s worth it.

The prices on FanDuel are jacked up a bit considering the extra $10,000 in salary cap.. like I said on my previous article, Tom Brady is worth $10,600 on DK but a whopping $15,500 on FD. I honestly think it’s a good idea to fade from Brady on FD – save your money, as I think Super Bowl LIII is going to be a running-heavy game. With Michel at MVP, stack him with Rex Burkhead for $10,000. Burkhead and Michel both rushed for paydirt twice against the Chiefs. Burkhead should see plenty of usage in order to give Michel and James White a breather.

Julian Edelman is Brady’s top option in the passing game and should be a core play at $14,000. He’s a quality option who should be moved around the field to make the most of his route-running prowess.

I’d round out the remaining $20,500 with Brandin Cooks ($11,500) and Greg Zuerlein ($10,000). Cooks will see plenty of targets against his former team. I like Zuerlein because the Patriots play great defense in the red zone. I see Zuerlein getting at least 2 opportunities to kick a field goal.. potentially more if some big plays occur.

Best of luck on Super Bowl Sunday!

 

DFS Lineups, DFS Value Plays

Triple F Podcast Week 11

Check out our newest edition of the Triple F Podcast (link below)!

Triple F Podcast Week 11

Patrick Caldwell talks about some of his preferred options for Week 11 on FanDuel (Sunday, 1 P.M. Main).

Check out his Facebook page at Patrick Caldwell, NFL Analyst!