DFS Lineups, DFS Value Plays, Fantasy Sleepers

Pat’s Picks; NBA DFS (Main – 02/13/2019)

Right before the All-Star Break, we have a whopping 11 games on today’s Main slate.

Here are the list of games and their start times. Lock begins at 7:00 P.M.:

BKN Nets @ CLE Cavaliers (7:00 P.M.)
MIL Bucks @ IND Pacers (7:00 P.M.)
DET Pistons @ BOS Celtics (7:30 P.M.)
WAS Wizards @ TOR Raptors (7:30 P.M.)
PHI 76ers @ NY Knicks (7:30 P.M.)
MEM Grizzlies @ CHI Bulls (8:00 P.M.)
HOU Rockets @ MIN Timberwolves (8:00 P.M.)
MIA Heat @ DAL Mavericks (8:30 P.M.)
SAC Kings @ DEN Nuggets (9:00 P.M.)
PHO Suns @ LAC Clippers (10:30 P.M.)
GS Warriors @ POR Trail Blazers (10:30 P.M.)

Because it’s right before the break, some teams may opt to sit star players at the last minute to give them an extended rest before the final stretch of the regular season. With this in mind, my top choices of the slate will take advantage of this as well as some favorable matchups. They are:

Collin Sexton CLE

(Image courtesy of Fear The Sword; picture taken by Maddie Meyer of Getty Images)

PG Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers ($4,900 on DK; $5,500 on FD)

Sexton provides consistent value despite his price tag remaining in the low-to-mid five-thousands on both platforms. The rookie has averaged 19.25 field goal attempts per game over his last 4 contests and has scored over 25 DK points in each game during that span as well (scoring 41 in the 103-96 loss to Boston last Tuesday).

Up against a Brooklyn defense that allows close to 112 points per game, Sexton should have no trouble being inserted as a value play for DFS players tonight. I expect between 20-25 points as well as 3-5 rebounds, maybe 2 or 3 assists and a steal tonight. Without any turnovers, he’d tally 38.25 DK points with that line. Not bad for someone who costs $4,900.

SF/PF Gordon Hayward, Boston Celtics ($4,800 on DK; $5,300 on FD)

With the C’s down star PG Kyrie Irving (knee), Hayward sank 8 of his 11 field goal attempts (including 6 of 7 from 3-point range), as well his 4 free throws for 26 points in the 112-109 win over the high-powered 76ers last night. He added 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals in his 28 minutes for 39.5 DK points.

On the second half of a back-to-back prior to the All-Star break, Hayward and the Celtics host the Detroit Pistons.. this time without both Irving and, likely, backup PG Terry Rozier (illness; listed as doubtful as of this post). Hayward will see plenty of opportunities to score if Rozier is out as well, although I think Hayward would meet value regardless of whether Rozier plays or not.

If Rozier is out, SGs Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown as well as F Jayson Tatum would see boosts to their usage tonight.

The Pistons allow just under 110 points per game, but the combination of Detroit bigs in Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond have me holding off from either Marcus Morris or Al Horford tonight.

Somewhere around ~20 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and a steal would be a good night for Hayward (34.5 DK points without any turnovers) at his price tag, but he may be forced to carry more of the offensive workload with the team down Irving/Rozier. Hayward is one of many Celtics’ options tonight, but perhaps the safest ‘value play’.

C Karl Anthony-Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves ($10,300 on DK; $10,900 on FD)

The big man has averaged 28 points per game over his last 5. Houston’s Clint Capela (thumb) has rejoined the team but will not be available for tonight’s game against Minnesota. Kenneth Faried has played well in Capela’s stead, but KAT is virtually matchup-proof.

Despite the hefty price tag, I have complete confidence in KAT scoring over 55 DK points tonight against the Rockets. I’m predicting a monster double-double of at least 25 points, 15 rebounds.. but add in the 3-5 assists he may tally as well as his blocks/steals (possibly around 3-4 total), and that will pad his final stat line.

This final game before the All-Star break is a perfect chance for KAT to go all-in against the Rockets, a team considered to be one of the best in the West.

SG Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards ($8,700 on DK; $9,700 on FD)

Beal is likely going to go under the radar tonight on both platforms. With James Harden commanding a large percentage of ownership already, there are also a few value options at SG in Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown tonight (assuming Terry Rozier is out, like I mentioned above; see Gordon Hayward’s little tidbit). Allen Crabbe could also take ownership away from Beal because of Treveon Graham (personal) and Rodion Kurucs (elbow) being ruled out (Crabbe played 31 minutes the other day with those two playing a combined 36 minutes).

Don’t expect Beal to put up the monster stat line he put up last time the Wizards and Raptors played (43 points, 15 assists, 10 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 steals in 54 minutes), but I think Beal puts on a show tonight against the Raptors. Beal has scored 30+ in his last 2 games, with multiple steals in each of his last 4.

Beal could help set a lineup apart tonight. With options like Harden, Devin Booker, DeAngelo Russell and a few key value plays out there, it’s likely Beal is the X-factor in a winning lineup.

SG/SF Landry Shamet, Los Angeles Clippers ($4,000 on DK; $4,600 on FD)

Given Shamet’s production with the Clippers since his trade from the Philadephia 76ers, I’m surprised he’s not priced in the $4,500-$5,000 range on DK. Shamet may not contribute immensely in other categories, but scoring 15+ points a game gives him a safe floor at his price range for a non-big.

Shamet could allow a DFS player to fit in some other quality options; as another option in the long list of players today, he could be another key factor to set a lineup apart.

I’m thinking 15-20 points, 2-3 rebounds and assists and perhaps a steal or two would be as good of a stat line as you could ask from Shamet tonight. If he gets 30+, that’s just the gravy on top. Against the Suns, expect the latter.

Best of luck everybody in your DFS lineups tonight!

DFS Lineups, DFS Value Plays, Fantasy Sleepers

Pat’s Picks; NBA DFS (Main – 02/12/19)

Today I’ll start a series called ‘Pat’s Picks’, where I’ll highlight my top choices that you should put into some or all of your lineups. My picks will cover both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Here are today’s games, with the lock time set at 7:30 P.M.:

Lakers @ Hawks (7:30 P.M.)
Magic @ Pelicans (8:00 P.M.)
Spurs @ Grizzlies (8:00 P.M.) (I only like one player from this game…)
Celtics @ 76ers (8:00 P.M.)
Jazz @ Warriors (10:30 P.M.)

Without further ado…

Kenrich Williams NOP

(Image courtesy of The Advocate staff. Photo taken by Scott Threlkeld.)

SG/SF Kenrich Williams, New Orleans Pelicans ($4,900 on DK, $6,400 on FD)

Williams has been highly impressive of late, scoring double-digit points as well as upping his rebounding over the last 3 games. He consistently sees 35+ minutes and has heavily increased his production since seeing starter minutes.

He faces the Orlando Magic tonight – not a bad defense, but with Williams’ new role in the offense, he contributes across the board too much to not insert into your lineup. He put up his first career double-double in his last game (99-90 loss to Memphis, a top defense), and he’s a threat to put up double-doubles on a nightly basis with his current usage.

On DraftKings, Williams is one of my top locks. He’s cheap and should get at least 30+ DK points tonight. On FanDuel, his $6,400 price tag has me second-guessing him.. but he’s still an amazing play (he’s a SF on FD). Orlando’s Jonathan Isaac could cause a few turnovers as he’s a pretty consistent defender, but Williams to me is almost a guaranteed 30+ fantasy point play tonight.

SG/SF Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic ($5,100 on DK; $6,400 on FD)

Another player who is priced way lower than they ought to be. I’m surprised Isaac hasn’t reached the $6,000+ range on DK yet; at $5,100, Isaac is a fantastic play against a mediocre Pelicans’ defense allowing a whopping 115 points per game to opposing teams.

Isaac has been scoring 25+ DK points in his last 8 games, and has had multiple blocks in his last 6! Isaac is able to stuff the stat sheet, notching steals and blocks while adding to his floor with his rebounding totals. He’ll be a fine play tonight against the Pelicans – preferably on DK, but his defensive abilities justify his $6,400 price tag on FanDuel as well.

Expect a solid 25-30+ from Isaac.

SF/PF Kyle Kuzma, Los Angeles Lakers ($6,000 on DK; $6,700 on FD)

Over 38 DK points in his last two games, Kuzma is geared for another solid night as he takes on a weak Hawks’ frontcourt.

The presence of LeBron James as one of the game’s top facilitators has been a major factor in Kuzma’s scoring emergence of late. Don’t expect huge contributions in other areas outside of maybe rebounding, but if Kuzma can score 20+ points he’s bound to provide value. I’d be surprised if Kuzma was kept under 35 fantasy points on either DK or FD tonight.

SF/PF Tobias Harris, Philadelphia 76ers ($6,600 on DK; $7,200 on FD)

I think Harris is going to be low-owned with the trio of Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid commanding a higher percentage of ownership by players tonight. With the Celtics down Kyrie Irving tonight, Boston’s defensive attention will likely be spread too thin and allow Harris to slip through the cracks.

Of course Harris isn’t the top option on this high-powered offense, but his modest rebounding and assist totals make him very likely to hit value tonight. Boston is a good defensive team, but when they’re down Irving they’re playing from behind. I’m liking almost every 76er tonight including J.J. Redick, but I think Harris will help some people get some serious cash tonight.

C JaVale McGee, Los Angeles Lakers ($4,800 on DK; $6,300 on FD)

I like his price on DK a lot. Atlanta’s weak in the frontcourt, and I think McGee provides amazing value on both DK and FD despite his $1,500 increase on the latter.

McGee put up a 20-point double double against the 76ers, who had both Harris and Embiid on defense; the Hawks have John Collins and a combination of Dwayne Dedmon and Alex Len. I’m not too worried about McGee meeting his floor, but of course it’s dependent on him maintaining the 27.5 minutes/game average he’s seen over his last two games.

I’d be surprised if McGee gave less than 25 fantasy points on either platform.

C Joakim Noah, Memphis Grizzlies ($4,000 on DK; $3,700 on FD)

Okay, so a little caveat; C Jonas Valanciunas is available to debut for the Grizzlies tonight after his immigration paperwork cleared (Valancuinas previously playing for the Toronto Raptors before being traded). HOWEVER….. I still like Noah tonight. He should see a solid ~25 minutes even with Valanciunas in the fold tonight, as the latter is recovering from a thumb injury he sustained in December. Valanciunas is expected to play as a backup to PF/C Ivan Rabb for the time being.

Noah saw 30 minutes against the Pelicans this past Sunday, with the veteran turning back the clock and putting up a strong double-double (19 points, 14 rebounds and 3 assists). Even if Noah only sees a max of 25 minutes, he’ll easily meet his minimal price tag (which, weirdly, is cheaper on FD). Expect around 25-30 fantasy points out of Noah tonight.

NOTE: This is probably the only player I’d play from either team in the Spurs-Grizzlies matchup. This will be mostly a defensive contest. Studs like DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge and Mike Conley are going to be hard-pressed to match their usual point totals; I’d hold off on relying on players from this contest.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DFS Lineups, DFS Value Plays, Fantasy Sleepers

NBA DFS Main Slate – 02/07/19

I’ve decided to try something different in terms of fantasy writing and switch gears to the NBA following the Super Bowl and the end of the NFL season.

With that in mind, I also enter the fold at an inopportune time; the NBA Trade Deadline was today, and prior to that a plethora of trades swept the league. A good lineup is likely going to involve taking advantage of one or more of the players that benefit most from the trades that occurred.

So on DraftKings, you draft the following positions:

  • Point Guard (PG)
  • Shooting Guard (SG)
  • Small Forward (SF)
  • Power Forward (PF)
  • Center (C)
  • Guard (PG/SG)
  • Forward (SF/PF)
  • Utility (PG/SG/SF/PF/C)

You have a $50,000 salary cap, or an average of $6,250 per position. You can certainly go high on players like Russell Westbrook ($11,300) or LeBron James ($10,400), but then you have to budget accordingly across the remainder of your lineup. What sets DraftKings apart from FanDuel is that you can customize a lineup in many different ways because so many players fall under multiple positions (ex. LeBron James can go in your SF, PF, F or Utility slot). Because of this, you could build a big man-centric lineup, a smaller team filled with extra guards, or try and even it out.

With this in mind, the games to be played tonight:

  • Clippers @ Pacers (7:00 P.M.)
  • Timberwolves @ Magic (7:00 P.M.)
  • Raptors @ Hawks (7:30 P.M.)
  • Lakers @ Celtics (8:00 P.M.)
  • Grizzlies @ Thunder (8:00 P.M.)
  • Spurs @ Trail Blazers (10:30 P.M.)

Top plays tonight, like I mentioned earlier, are likely players that will gain extra playing time as a result of the trades that occurred in the last few days. A lot of these players are incredibly cheap so they should match value and provide room to pad your lineup with extra studs.

Here are a few of my top plays tonight:

Ivan Rabb NBA

PF/C Ivan Rabb – Memphis Grizzlies – $5,100

C Marc Gasol was traded to the Toronto Raptors today in exchange for C Jonas Valanciunas, G Delon Wright, F C.J. Miles and a 2024 second-round pick, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. This opens up plenty of minutes for Rabb in the Memphis frontcout. Rabb started on February 5th against the Timberwolves with Gasol sitting out due to trade talks picking up, notching a double-double with 19 points, 11 rebounds, 2 steals, an assist and a block in 33 minutes.

The Thunder have given up the 5th-fewest points-per-game to opposing defenses (105), but Rabb should have a high floor as he’ll see plenty of run tonight. At $5,100, it’s hard not to consider him a lock.

SG/SF Terrence Ross – Orlando Magic – $5,100

The Magic didn’t see any movement outside of sending G/F Jonathan Simmons to the Philadelphia 76ers (along with a first-rounder and second-rounder) for 2017 #1 overall pick, G Markelle Fultz. However, Ross has been a scoring machine of late, scoring 25+ points in two of his last three games despite averaging 26 minutes/game during that stretch.

Expect Ross to have a decent floor tonight as he faces a Minnesota defense that’s depleted in the backcourt; PGs Derrick Rose and Tyus Jones are both out while PG Jeff Teague (foot) has been upgraded from doubtful to questionable – even if Teague plays, Ross should have plenty of opportunities to score. Ross also boosts his floor with his defensive ability – he’s had 6 steals in the aforementioned span of games. Ross isn’t a surefire lock, but he’s another reliable value play tonight that might not be as highly owned as some of the top SG/SF options like the Pacers’ Bojan Bogdanovic or the Grizzlies’ Justin Holiday.

SF/PF Paul George – Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,000

I don’t think much needs to be said here… George has 35+ points in his last 5 games. As a member of an offense that includes PG Russell Westbrook, it’s insane that he’s scoring that much consistently.

George is up against a Grizzlies’ team that has played extremely defensive basketball this year, but is incredibly short-handed due to trades. Absolute lock.

C Jusuf Nurkic – Portland Trail Blazers – $7,900

The Spurs will have LaMarcus Aldridge (rest) back tonight, but I still love Nurkic here. He only played 23 minutes in his last game due to foul trouble, and even with lingering knee soreness, I think Nurkic has a solid floor. His value at $7,900 makes him one of my favorite C plays tonight.

 

Best of luck on your fantasy lineups tonight, everyone. I’m definitely still a football-first kind of guy, but maybe this NBA thing will work out. I don’t know.. let me know what you think!