DFS Lineups, DFS Value Plays, Fantasy Sleepers

Pat’s Picks; NBA DFS (Main – 02/13/2019)

Right before the All-Star Break, we have a whopping 11 games on today’s Main slate.

Here are the list of games and their start times. Lock begins at 7:00 P.M.:

BKN Nets @ CLE Cavaliers (7:00 P.M.)
MIL Bucks @ IND Pacers (7:00 P.M.)
DET Pistons @ BOS Celtics (7:30 P.M.)
WAS Wizards @ TOR Raptors (7:30 P.M.)
PHI 76ers @ NY Knicks (7:30 P.M.)
MEM Grizzlies @ CHI Bulls (8:00 P.M.)
HOU Rockets @ MIN Timberwolves (8:00 P.M.)
MIA Heat @ DAL Mavericks (8:30 P.M.)
SAC Kings @ DEN Nuggets (9:00 P.M.)
PHO Suns @ LAC Clippers (10:30 P.M.)
GS Warriors @ POR Trail Blazers (10:30 P.M.)

Because it’s right before the break, some teams may opt to sit star players at the last minute to give them an extended rest before the final stretch of the regular season. With this in mind, my top choices of the slate will take advantage of this as well as some favorable matchups. They are:

Collin Sexton CLE

(Image courtesy of Fear The Sword; picture taken by Maddie Meyer of Getty Images)

PG Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers ($4,900 on DK; $5,500 on FD)

Sexton provides consistent value despite his price tag remaining in the low-to-mid five-thousands on both platforms. The rookie has averaged 19.25 field goal attempts per game over his last 4 contests and has scored over 25 DK points in each game during that span as well (scoring 41 in the 103-96 loss to Boston last Tuesday).

Up against a Brooklyn defense that allows close to 112 points per game, Sexton should have no trouble being inserted as a value play for DFS players tonight. I expect between 20-25 points as well as 3-5 rebounds, maybe 2 or 3 assists and a steal tonight. Without any turnovers, he’d tally 38.25 DK points with that line. Not bad for someone who costs $4,900.

SF/PF Gordon Hayward, Boston Celtics ($4,800 on DK; $5,300 on FD)

With the C’s down star PG Kyrie Irving (knee), Hayward sank 8 of his 11 field goal attempts (including 6 of 7 from 3-point range), as well his 4 free throws for 26 points in the 112-109 win over the high-powered 76ers last night. He added 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals in his 28 minutes for 39.5 DK points.

On the second half of a back-to-back prior to the All-Star break, Hayward and the Celtics host the Detroit Pistons.. this time without both Irving and, likely, backup PG Terry Rozier (illness; listed as doubtful as of this post). Hayward will see plenty of opportunities to score if Rozier is out as well, although I think Hayward would meet value regardless of whether Rozier plays or not.

If Rozier is out, SGs Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown as well as F Jayson Tatum would see boosts to their usage tonight.

The Pistons allow just under 110 points per game, but the combination of Detroit bigs in Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond have me holding off from either Marcus Morris or Al Horford tonight.

Somewhere around ~20 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and a steal would be a good night for Hayward (34.5 DK points without any turnovers) at his price tag, but he may be forced to carry more of the offensive workload with the team down Irving/Rozier. Hayward is one of many Celtics’ options tonight, but perhaps the safest ‘value play’.

C Karl Anthony-Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves ($10,300 on DK; $10,900 on FD)

The big man has averaged 28 points per game over his last 5. Houston’s Clint Capela (thumb) has rejoined the team but will not be available for tonight’s game against Minnesota. Kenneth Faried has played well in Capela’s stead, but KAT is virtually matchup-proof.

Despite the hefty price tag, I have complete confidence in KAT scoring over 55 DK points tonight against the Rockets. I’m predicting a monster double-double of at least 25 points, 15 rebounds.. but add in the 3-5 assists he may tally as well as his blocks/steals (possibly around 3-4 total), and that will pad his final stat line.

This final game before the All-Star break is a perfect chance for KAT to go all-in against the Rockets, a team considered to be one of the best in the West.

SG Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards ($8,700 on DK; $9,700 on FD)

Beal is likely going to go under the radar tonight on both platforms. With James Harden commanding a large percentage of ownership already, there are also a few value options at SG in Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown tonight (assuming Terry Rozier is out, like I mentioned above; see Gordon Hayward’s little tidbit). Allen Crabbe could also take ownership away from Beal because of Treveon Graham (personal) and Rodion Kurucs (elbow) being ruled out (Crabbe played 31 minutes the other day with those two playing a combined 36 minutes).

Don’t expect Beal to put up the monster stat line he put up last time the Wizards and Raptors played (43 points, 15 assists, 10 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 steals in 54 minutes), but I think Beal puts on a show tonight against the Raptors. Beal has scored 30+ in his last 2 games, with multiple steals in each of his last 4.

Beal could help set a lineup apart tonight. With options like Harden, Devin Booker, DeAngelo Russell and a few key value plays out there, it’s likely Beal is the X-factor in a winning lineup.

SG/SF Landry Shamet, Los Angeles Clippers ($4,000 on DK; $4,600 on FD)

Given Shamet’s production with the Clippers since his trade from the Philadephia 76ers, I’m surprised he’s not priced in the $4,500-$5,000 range on DK. Shamet may not contribute immensely in other categories, but scoring 15+ points a game gives him a safe floor at his price range for a non-big.

Shamet could allow a DFS player to fit in some other quality options; as another option in the long list of players today, he could be another key factor to set a lineup apart.

I’m thinking 15-20 points, 2-3 rebounds and assists and perhaps a steal or two would be as good of a stat line as you could ask from Shamet tonight. If he gets 30+, that’s just the gravy on top. Against the Suns, expect the latter.

Best of luck everybody in your DFS lineups tonight!

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